Expected macroeconomic environment
- 2017 GDP forecast: 3.6% in Poland, 2.9% in the Czech Republic, 1.5% in Germany, 2.4% in Lithuania.
- Brent crude price – crude oil price in the base case scenario is expected to grow relative to the average price in 2016, driven by higher demand and the largest producers’ arrangements to reduce the supply.
- Model downstream margin – forecast decline in annual average margin compared with 2016, primarily as a result of lower year-on-year margins on petrochemical products. Despite the projected decrease, high margin levels are expected, supported by the favourable macro climate, i.e. low crude prices and higher fuel and petrochemical product consumption.
Expected market trends
- Expected increase in demand for fuel, both petrol and diesel oil, in Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic States, stabilisation of demand in Germany.
Legislative changes
- Grey market for fuel − implementation of solutions to curb grey market: fuel package (as of August 1st 2016), energy package (as of end of Q1 2017), transport package (planned launch in Q2 2017).
- Emergency stocks – gradual reduction of emergency stocks from the equivalent of 60 days to the equivalent of 53 days in 2017 (approximately 0.3m tonnes) and, in consequence, lower working capital.
- NIT – in 2017, the NIT in Poland will remain unchanged at 7.1%. The NIT for PKN ORLEN will be reduced to 5.822%.
- Turnover tax – work is underway to introduce a tax on retail turnover, including at service stations.
Investments of the ORLEN Group
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Major growth projects in 2017: |
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Scheduled maintenance shutdowns at the ORLEN Group in 2017:
- PKN ORLEN: DRW III, Hydrocracking, HOG, Reforming, PX/PTA.
- ORLEN Lietuva Group: FKK, Hydrogen Production Plant, Visbreaking.
- Unipetrol Group: Visbreaking (Litvínov), Hydrocracking (Litvínov), HON (Kralupy).
- Anwil: PVC.
- BOP: Polyethylene/Polypropylene.
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